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Earlier this month, ISIS announced that its leader, Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurayshi, had died fighting a rival terrorist group in Eastern Syria. It used the occasion to acknowledge its new caliph, little-known Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi. Al-Hashimi is the group’s fifth “caliph” since Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed in a U.S. raid in October 2019. With five caliphs in less than four years, the Islamic State makes governments in the Sahel seem stable.
We should expect the usual behavior from ISIS in light of its newly appointed caliph. Like last time, affiliated groups and “provinces” are pledging “bayat” or oaths of allegiance to the new leader. They are sharing images on social media of their soldiers armed with machine guns and riding motorcycles. Sometimes, as in the photoshoots from Yemen and Iraq, there are a handful of fighters. Other times, as with the shots from Nigeria, the photos show dozens. Like last time, we are seeing dramatic attacks. The Islamic State Khorasan claimed a recent bombing in Pakistan that took 54 lives and wounded some 200. We should expect to see more dramatic attacks in the coming weeks.
But this succession is different. While every caliph has faced daunting challenges since the death of Baghdadi, the current caliph is in a worse position than his last three predecessors. In the past, ISIS would acknowledge the death or “martyrdom” of a caliph and announce a successor quickly. Last year, for example, six weeks passed between the death of Abu al-Hassan al-Hashimi (caliph number three) and the announcement of Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini (caliph number four). This time, however, over three months passed between the death of al-Husseini and the ascension of Abu Hafs al-Hashimi. This longer period of abeyance suggests further institutional deterioration of ISIS.
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